The Brief – Starmer’s EU-UK ‘reset’ faces reality check after botched divorce

As UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s first official meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen takes place in Brussels on Wednesday, an unfamiliar optimism is in the air. 

But for all the pleasantries on both sides, we still lack details on what Starmer hopes to get out of his heavily trailed ‘reset’ of relations with his closest neighbours. 

Much of the speculation has centred on the trade dimension of the relationship, understandably so, given the hand the UK dealt itself with the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) - one of the two core agreements, alongside the Withdrawal Agreement, that now govern the EU-UK relationship. 

From the City of London to what is left of the automotive industry to the small traders who once used Europe to scale up their businesses, no one in UK industry seems happy and everybody is seeking improvements. 

They might see a dimly lit path forward emerge tomorrow. Von der Leyen’s deputy, Maros Šefčovič, spoke of “advancing our joint agenda” following his meeting on Monday (30 September) with Nick Thomas-Symonds, the UK minister for EU relations.  A Commission spokesperson told Euractiv the meeting marked "the beginning of a journey" towards closer cooperation.

But the Labour Party’s manifesto for the July UK general election, on which Starmer won a thumping 174-seat majority, offered little on the destination of that journey, save for the obvious fertile ground of defence cooperation. 

Many of the other pledges seemed to misunderstand that changes to a trade deal cannot be unilaterally promised into existence. 

Take the case of touring artists – another group of dissatisfied Brits – to whom Labour pledged a bespoke arrangement to allow them to perform on the continent more easily. This would require re-opening several chapters of the TCA, making it a total non-starter for the EU. 

Labour knows the TCA is not up for re-negotiation, not least because of its engagement with the Commission before entering government.  

Some years ago, I recall bumping into then-shadow, now-full Foreign Secretary David Lammy in the lobby of the Berlaymont, following unofficial stock-takes with Šefčovič —who one can assume put across the EU line to the letter. 

It would be perplexing for Starmer to claim ‘reset’ and then knock on the same closed door tomorrow as his predecessors. 

But more perplexing still is that the UK’s focus on future improvements overlooks a crucial detail: they have yet to fully implement what was agreed upon in the divorce. 

Over the summer, the Commission sent London a list of eight Withdrawal Agreement issues that are still to be resolved. These are scarcely mentioned in my conversations with UK sources working on the EU relationship. 

Yet sorting these longstanding issues – around Northern Ireland and the continued mistreatment of millions of EU citizens living in the UK – may ultimately unlock the trade progress British industry is pushing for. 

The Commission made clear in that letter – and through legal action – that it must first see “real UK government commitment” to implementing current arrangements before considering fresh concessions. Successive Conservative governments failed to understand this. 

For different results, Starmer likely must take a different approach. 

The pragmatic start he can make tomorrow is to honour the Withdrawal Agreement in full. Only afterwards would it be wise to play his other cards – such as exploiting an apparent shift towards openness in some influential member states.  

The contours of a comprehensive defence and security deal with Germany have been floated. Dublin seems reassured that the adults are once again back at the table. Even Giorgia Meloni looks to be an ally on migration. 

As has been the case since the UK’s 2016 referendum, the Commission's challenge remains to keep the capitals united, particularly if Starmer continues his charm offensive. 

For von der Leyen, tomorrow’s meeting is a chance to set out her terms for a ’reset’, cut through external noise, and defend the agreements her Union backed in 2020. 

For Starmer, charm alone is unlikely to sway her off course. 

The Roundup

Read our latest defence news on Mark Rutte becoming head of NATO:

When Dutchman Mark Rutte takes over as NATO’s secretary general on Tuesday (1 October), his first five tasks may be obvious and unsurprising, but they will not be easy to navigate.

The former Dutch Prime minister, who proudly called himself a frugal, insisted countries must spend more in his first remarks as NATO head on Tuesday (1 October), putting defence expenditure high on the list of priorities.

Support to Ukraine, revamping the club's collective defence mechanisms and spending increases remain key highlights of Jens Stoltenberg's ten years at the head of NATO, as on Tuesday (1 October), he handed over the reins to Mark Rutte.

In other news:

European Parliament committee chairs are expected to outline a plan for grilling candidates for the next European Commission at a closed-door meeting on Tuesday (1 October).

EU Prosecutor Laura Kövesi has called on Greek politicians to change a law that provides ministers with immunity, saying it goes against European law and prevented an EU investigation over a deadly train accident that cost the lives of 57 people.

Chairs of the European Parliament’s committees grappled with controlling hearings for the next crop of EU commissioners on Tuesday (1 October) while agreeing to propose two alternative timetables for the scrutiny hearings.

The Commission disclosed disagreements between general-purpose model providers and other stakeholders at the first Code of Practice plenary for general-purpose artificial intelligence (GPAI) on Monday (30 September).

The Netherlands' government and opposition are both abstaining from supporting the latest version of the controversial EU regulation aimed at detecting online child sexual abuse material (CSAM), according to an official position and an open letter published on Tuesday (1 October).

Look out for…

• The European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) and European Committee of the Regions (CoR) organises a workshop in Brussels titled “Cybersecurity Days 2024 – Defend Today, Secure Tomorrow”
• The Representation of the State of Hesse, Germany, to the EU, organises a conference in Brussels titled "Clean Industrial Deal – Opportunities for Europe's Regions and Workforce"
• CEPS think tank organises a conference in Brussels titled “EU cohesion policy post-2027: why and how to enhance flexibility”.
• EPSF organises in Brussels a conference debate titled “Funding the Future of Europe – Celebrating the new Parliament 2024-2029”
• The weekly European Commission College meeting
• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen receives the UK Prime Minister  Keir Starmer in Brussels, Belgium.
• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen receives the President of Georgia Salome Zourabichvili.
• European Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen holds a press conference on building sustainable international partnerships, in Brussels Belgium.